 Top - schedule the burst of solar activity According to satellite GOES; bottom - the image of the Sun with telescopes at the observatory AIA SDO. the evening of Sunday, Moscow time on the Sun has experienced major event - the biggest in the last 12 months of a solar flare level M6.6. Event had a pulse blast profile with a very fast, ten-, phase growth - from 20:28 to 20:38 MSK. According to the satellite monitoring system for space weather GOES (USA), X-ray flux in low Earth orbit at the maximum Flash has grown about 200 times , and then stayed elevated for about 2 hours. Now, over a period of several hours to days can be expected coming to the Earth of charged particles from the flare region, and then, within three days, the arrival of clouds of ionized gas is almost always thrown out from the solar atmosphere during flares. Region 1158, in which the outbreak occurred at the time of the event was near the central solar longitude , ie directly opposite the Earth. This situation, where the impact of solar events on the Earth is the maximum. Thus, the observations provide a very large probability forecast for February 16 geomagnetic disturbances, but not yet fully understood what force. outbreak occurred for the fourth class flare activity on a scale in which outbreaks are denoted by letters A, B, C, M and X. Outbreaks are classified according to the goods that they flow X-rays in Earth orbit. In this case, each subsequent class surpasses the previous capacity of 10 times. No outbreak of class X to The sun was not registered with the December 14, 2006, that is already more than 4 years. With regard to outbreaks of class M, then its the same four-year period, there were 35, but only Two of them were bigger than Sunday's event: a flash-level M8.9 on June 4, 2007 and occurred almost exactly a year ago level M8.3 flare on 12 February 2010 . These two events were separated by a deep solar minimum, which came on the years 2008-2009. Thus, the outbreak of 2007, in fact, was the last a major event preceding the 23rd solar cycle, and the outbreak of the February 12, 2010 and the outbreak took place yesterday on 13 February 2011 are still the most powerful events of the new 24-second cycle, is now developing in the Sun. Despite the force of the flash and its very high geoeffectiveness, while the observational data do not allow predict strong perturbations, and suggest rather the opposite. First of all, the flare region, despite the very great power, is young and was formed just three days ago. For this reason it could not yet accumulated a large number of dense plasma, which could be thrown explosion. The most dangerous for the Earth in this regard is the oldest active area with plenty of substance, often observed as dense cold fibers surrounding the sunspots. The presence of large emissions have not yet confirmed by direct observations from space-borne coronagraph LASCO, which do not register large movements of the masses in the solar neighborhood. Finally, the pulsed nature of the outbreak, in general, not specific to the events with the release of substances in the latter case usually observed much longer sections, as in events from August 1, 2010 , which caused one of the strongest magnetic storms past Year . final forecast of the strength of geomagnetic disturbances can be updated during these hours. While one can only say with confidence that whatever amount of plasma has not been released to the strontium of the Earth, to reach our planet it should in the first half of the day February 16, 2011. | |||
| Laboratory X-ray Astronomy, Sun, LPI |
Source: Tesis.Lebedev.ru .
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